SPINOFF RADAR RADAR ACTIVE
EDITION 1 TRACKER WATCHLIST SUBSCRIBE
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CORPORATE EVENT INTELLIGENCE

Spin-offs, carve-outs & activists — before the market connects the dots.

A bilingual radar for corporate separations, take-privates and activist campaigns. One biweekly edition. One index. Zero noise.

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01

Inside Edition 1

$CY5.AX · CYGNUS ARB
Madrid auctions the world's largest olive-oil company. Coricelli leads at ~€500M, Dcoop and Acesur behind — but who prices the minority shareholder waiting inside?
● CLOSE: SEPTEMBER
$TTD · FORCED SELLING
The Knicks, the Rangers and a Sphere share one balance sheet. Form 10 filed Aug 14: the ~30% "Dolan discount" has a date with October.
● FORM 10 FILED
$VGNT · VERSIGENT
A spun-off thermostat maker near 52-week lows — and the CEO, the general counsel and the strategy chief just bought ~$848K of their own stock in four days.
● INSIDER CLUSTER
$MOD/$THRM · REV. MORRIS TRUST
ExxonMobil and LyondellBasell circle Shell's ~$8B US chemicals package. Europe's assets next. Portfolio surgery that may become a separation.
● PE CIRCLES
SPINOFF RADAR INDEX
KKR bids $42.50 for the utility activists wanted broken up — and the stock trades at a ~10% discount to the offer. The market still doubts.
● EVENT #1

The Spinoff Radar Index

One number, every Friday: how the corporate-separation market is actually moving. Verified closes, no cherry-picking, full methodology published. Bookmark material.

02

The tracker — every separation, by phase

PHASE 1 · ANNOUNCED

The radar catches the signal: the board announces the separation. The map is drawn here — rationale, structure, expected calendar. Maximum information edge, minimum market attention.

PHASE 2 · TRADING

The new company trades on its own. Index funds dump what doesn't fit their mandate — the mechanical selling window. This is where the structural discount lives.

PHASE 3 · INDEPENDENT

The forced sellers are gone and the business starts pricing on its own numbers. Post-spin performance feeds the Spinoff Radar Index every Friday.

PHASE SINCECOMPANYPARENTPHASENEXT MILESTONE
AUG 04ADI Global · $ADIGResideo● PHASE 2 — TRADINGPost-spin tracking — weekly Index
AUG 05Health Information SystemsSolventum $SOLV● PHASE 1 — ANNOUNCEDSeparation expected 2026-27
JUL 28Lubricants & SpecialtiesHF Sinclair $DINO● PHASE 1 — ANNOUNCEDSpin-off in 12-18 months
AUG 14MSG Rangers Corp.MSGS $MSGS● PHASE 1 — FORM 10 FILEDClose expected ~end Oct 2026
2026NBCU + SkyComcast $CMCSA● PHASE 1 — ANNOUNCEDSeparation ~2027
2026Global Coffee Co.Keurig Dr Pepper $KDP● PHASE 1 — ANNOUNCEDIPO expected 2026

5 separations live on the radar — updated with each edition, every other Friday. Date = entry into current phase (announcement for Phase 1, first trading day for Phase 2).

03

The watchlist — turnarounds & takeovers

TURNAROUNDS — STRUCTURE FIRST, NUMBERS LATER
$MKL · MARKEL
Jana's plan on the table: if Ventures at 12x EBIT covers ~94% of the market cap, the insurer trades as if the turnaround never happens.
● ACTIVIST INSIDE
$GDOT · GREEN DOT
Selling tech assets, merging the bank with CommerceOne: cash payout + stake in the combined bank, below book. Shareholders approved — regulator pending.
● PROCESS LIVE
$PBI · PITNEY BOWES
Repurchased 17% of the company in 2025. Phase-two strategic review now underway; transaction comps at 10-14x EBITDA.
● PROCESS LIVE
$STRT · STRATTEC
Auto locks for GM, Ford, Stellantis. New CEO lifted EBIT margins 1.5%→5% (target 7-10%); net cash ≈ a third of the cap, 14% buyback authorized.
● TURNAROUND
$NAVI · NAVIENT
Trades at 0.37x book while the market treats it as a melting ice cube. Activist Edward Bramson (~31%) is now CEO — incentives aligned.
● ACTIVIST CEO
SIG GROUP · SIG.SW
CEO fired Aug 17, −27% intraday. Margins and FCF guidance intact — Capital Markets Day Oct 27 is the next proof point.
● CMD OCT 27
$MCDIF · MEDICAL FACILITIES
Surgical hospitals at a deep discount while it returns capital. Thesis under verification — our first-source coverage in Spanish.
● UNDER REVIEW
$VFC · VF CORP
Bracken Darrell rebuilding the house of Vans and The North Face, Engaged Capital inside, Supreme already sold. The turnaround is mid-flight.
● TURNAROUND
$DR.TO · DREAM RESIDENTIAL
~4x EV/EBIT, bought back ~15% of shares ttm, facilities sold at 8-9x EBIT. The discount has a buyer: the company itself.
● TURNAROUND
TAKEOVERS & BROKEN DEALS
EVOLUTION AB · EVO.ST
Candle Lake's mandatory offer at 695 SEK — and the stock trades above it. Acceptance window runs until Sep 15. The market bets on more.
● OFFER LIVE
$ACB · AURORA CANNABIS
Curaleaf's hostile intent at a 45% premium to the 30-day VWAP. Contested bids are where the radar earns its name.
● HOSTILE
$PYPL · PAYPAL
The $53B take-private broke and the stock dropped ~13%. Broken-deal watch: what the bidder saw is still on the table.
● BROKEN DEAL

Watchlist = under study, not a recommendation. No position without our own prior analysis. Updated with each radar session.

04

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